Mixed forecasts. Generally we look at four of them every day, and for a few days ahead. Usually there is a sort of consensus, but on Saturday, three agreed it would be a benign day, possibly up to Force 4, while one predicted Force 6 or more on the nose. From the harbour, a gentle breeze beckoned, and off we set, enjoying the morning sail.
Soon it was howling, and that short Baltic chop had our poor boat slamming into the troughs of the waves, slowing us down and extending our time in our mini–maelstrom. The best answer seems to be a big engine and two reefs in the mainsail to keep the boat steady. But still we wondered if really the best answer would have been to stay in the previous port.
A lesson learnt. If one forecast differs, Sod’s Law says that’s the one that’s right!
When I used to fly, I was taught to assume that the worst forecast was correct, with the added advice that ‘it was better to be down on the ground wishing you were up in the air, than up in the air, wishing you were down on the ground.’ Looks like you can substitute ‘in port’ and ‘at sea’ and the advice remains relevant!
At least you are experienced sailors and knew what to do to cope with the unexpectedly nasty conditions.
I am hugely enjoying following your blog and tracking you on marine traffic.
Ruth x
Haha. And did you have to learn the lesson more than once? It was never dangerous, just uncomfortable enough to remind us of some Weather 101 basics 🙂
Which forecast was correct?
ECMWF
Interesting. Windy states for ECMWF: “Clear winner compared to other forecast models” so I think I will weight that one higher in my comparisons!
We find it more accurate in the Alps but until now had preferred XC Weather (GFS) afloat.
Sounds as though its no longer summer sailing in the Baltic. But sure you are enjoying it anyway.
We still didn’t get the notification but no matter. Rx